Investment -Desperate War of Japan in the Pacific

Investment

Trade

Qing

Tbl.2 Japanese Export
ratio to 1932
Nation	1934
Mexico & Cuba	12
South America	5
India	2
UK	2
Australia	4
South Africa	2
New Zealand	4

Tbl.1 Chiniese Export
in Qing
Region	million dollars
Spain	100
Japan	100
UK	60
US	90

Chinese official controlled export of tea, silk and chinas in 17th century. Western as well as Japanese wanted Chinese products. So China got a lot of silver as follows. China was very rich. 1 dollar weighted 26g of silver in those days. But Qing was losing her power after First Opium War.
Miyazaki p.351

Why did China controlled trading? Because the trading tax was income of Emperor. comprador (baiben) and gyoushou of Canton and western merchants got profit from the trading. But farmers of China had not been able to pay tax (copper) because of flowing silver from China. While Goverment of Beijing gathered tax (silver). Ratio of copper to silver was very high. Local government of Canton also gathered extra trading tax. The wealth of Canton succeed in building government in Nanjing.
Yokohama no baiben

Japan in 1930s
Export of Japan suffered damaged in 1929. But some people went ouf for new market to Africa, South America, Australia and Europe. The table shows the result. And London market was favor in Japan. Some people and military bureaucrats thought Japan could come out of the bad situation in a way to invade Manchuria in 1931.
Yoshida p.52-53

Tbl.3 shows Japanese-US trade from 1929 to 1934. Export decreased almost half, while import increased. The balance got worse. Cotton weight exchange ratio to silk was 24.1 in 1927. The ratio was 9.1 in 1934. Tbl.4 shows Japanese-UK trade. Japan exported silk to US and imported cotton from US. Japan exported cotton textile to Asia etc. Japan depended on import of oil and cotton from US.
Hinkoku, p41-42

Tbl.3 Japanese-US trade [million ¥]
Year Export Import Balance

sum silk (ratio) sum cotton (ratio)

1929 914.1 755.4(42.3%) 654.1 276.4(42.3%) 260.0

1930 506.2 398.7(78.8%) 442.9 176.8(39.9%) 63.3

1931 425.3 342.5(80.5%) 342.3 153.7(44.9%) 83.0

1932 445.1 360.1(80.9%) 509.9 320.8(62.9%) -64.7

1933 492.2 355.8(72.3%) 620.8 381.7(61.5%) -128.6

1934 398.9 239.6(60.1%) 769.4 400.9(52.1%) -370.4

Tbl.4 Japanese-UK trade [million ¥]
Year	Export	Import	Balance
1929	438.7	686.9	-248.2
1930	339.5	449.5	-110.0
1931	265.7	373.8	-108.1
1932	369.8	403.5	-33.7
1933	461.1	592.1	-131.0
1934	627.0	722.5	-95.5

Powers' investment in China at interwar period
Powers' investment in China at interwar period
Year UK Russia Germany Japan France US Belguim etc

1914 37.7% 16.7% 16.4% 13.6% 10.7% 3.1% 1.4% 0.4%

1931 36.7% 8.4% 2.7% 35.1% 5.9% 6.1% 2.7% 2.4%

Old powers had invested in China since the First Opium War. New powers of Japan and US increased shares among powers at interwar period, which were competitive one another. Japan and US increased investment in China 2.58 times and 3.99 times each at interwar period. The share changed drastically from 1914 to 1931 as follows. Russia and France decreased the share. The total amount of 1914 and 1931 were 1.61 and 3.24 billion dollars each.⁽²⁾

9-power Treaty
War lords fought civil war in China after 辛亥革命 happended in 1911. Powers and China tied about territories of China in 1922. 9 nations were Japan, China, US, UK, France, Netherlands, Italy, Belguim and Portugal. Russia and Germany dropped the powers in China. France, Germany and Russia intervened Japanese-Sino War in Meiji era. France was great power in Yokohama. Although Portugal had 澳門, IJN had sea power to overwhelm naval forces of China, France, Italy, Belguim and Portugal in China Sea. So US, UK and Japan commited the right in China. IJN increased her power more and more. UK could not have sea power in Hongkong to compete Japan at last. Okada Cabinet declared denunciation of Wasington Treaty on 29 December 1934. IJN wanted much budget for bureaucracy to maintain their occupation. Almost of them understood that IJN was not competitive against USN. The bureaucrats were the same of the latest Qing in China. Any bureaucracy always begins to work for themselves only in East Asia.

Manchurian incident
Republic of China unified China again in December 1928, when 張学良 hoisted flag of republic of China. IJA bureaucrats thought of crisis of Japanese right in Manchuria. Russia wanted to give up such right in Manchuria after Russian Revolution. US advocated open door policy in China. Five IJA section chiefs ( Nagata, Okamura, Watari, Yamawaki ), bureaucrats thought invasion plan of Manchuria at a room of 国本社 on 19 June 1931.

Powers' investment in China at interwar period
Year	UK	Russia	Germany	Japan	France	US	Belguim	etc
1914	37.7%	16.7%	16.4%	13.6%	10.7%	3.1%	1.4%	0.4%
1931	36.7%	8.4%	2.7%	35.1%	5.9%	6.1%	2.7%	2.4%

満州問題解決方針の大綱

満州における張学良政権の排日方針の緩和に，外務省とも協力してつとめる。
にもかかわらず排日行動が発展すれば，ついに"軍事行動の已むなきに至る"ことがある。
満州問題の解決には，内外の理解をえることが絶対に必要である。
軍事行動に必要な兵力は，関東軍と作戦部が協議して計画する。
内外の理解をえるための施策は，"約一ヶ年即ち来年春まで"を期間とし，その実施に周到を期す。
関東軍首脳部に，"来る一年間は隠忍自重"のうえ，排日紛争に巻き込まれないように努めさせる。

US investment to Japan and China

US Investment to China and Japan [k$]
Year 1930 1936 1940

China 129,768 90,593 46,136

Japan 61,450 46,694 37,671

China/Japan 2.1 1.9 1.2

After WWI, US had invested to China and Japan as follows. As matter of fact, Japan needed US dollars and knowhow to develop domestic industries. Ishibashi Tanzan understood the economic reality well. Japan was dependent on world trading. Japan was dependen on foreign hired merchant ships to transport resources and products. In fact, Japan imported cotton and oil including gasoline from the US. How did Japanese leaders think of military option with a war against the US? Japan declared denunciation of Washington Naval Treaty in December 1934.

Road to the Pacific War in 1940
US Congress approved production of 10,000 USN aircraft on 14 May. Japan and the US resumed diplomatic negotiation in April. France surrendered on 22 Jun. US informed Japan of abolishment of Japanese-US Treaty of Commerce and Navigation on 26 July. US imposed embargo of oil products on Japan in August. Japan occupied the north of Fench Indochina to shut a Shiang aid route on 23 September. US imposed embargo of low quality aviation gasoline on 1 August. US recommended that American women and children would left the Far East on 8 October 1940. US imposed embargo of scrap steel on Japan on 16 October in order to make a lot of steel. FDR was to be elected Presiden in November. US decided to build 51 airfields in December.
Depression Suzuki Syoten
Suzuki Syoten grew big in WWI, which was independent from Japanese major Zaibatu. The main profit of the business were from sugar industry in Taiwan and freighters. Once Mitsui tried to buy the sugar industry division of Suzuki, but Suzuki refused. Mitsui triggered that Suzuki was bankrupt, because Taiwan Bank invested Suzuki and Mitsui recovered 30 million yen in yen call market on March in 1927.
Taiwan Bank bankrupt
Yen for Depression term

World currency in Depression
Year UK US Japan France Germany Belgium Netherlands

1929 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

1931 93.1 100.0 98.0 100.1 99.2 100.2 100.1

1932 71.8 99.8 56.4 100.3 99.7 100.1 100.3

1933 68.1 80.6 40.4 100.0 99.6 100.2 100.1

1934 61.8 59.7 35.6 100.0 98.6 99.9 100.0

1935 59.8 59.4 34.2 100.0 100.3 78.6 100.0

1936 60.4 59.2 34.5 92.4 100.1 72.0 94.9

Economy of Japan depended US dollars before the Pacific War. Japan had to buy various production equipment and materials on US dollars for innovations. The table shows how Japanese yen hurt under Depression.
League of Nations
German currency stayed stable constant. It shows German economical policy was correct, though Germany occurred the War. Japan was worst to handle depression among powers. UK and US also failed to work economical policy. US boosted her power at war time economy in 40s.
Yen lost compitiion with other powers in Depression. So some bureaucrats and military groups thought Japan grew like Soviet Union under controlled economy, if Japan dominated resources of China and market. Soviet Union had natural resources to develop her own economy. Though Japan occupied Shanghai, Yen could not win Yuan. Chinese people selected Yuan. And worse, oil wells were not found in China those days. Japan was fatal without import of oil. Stock market When Yoshida Shigeru was ambassador in London in 1936-1938, prime minister Chamberlain called him. Yoshida said to him, "Interest of Japanese bond is high in London market considering confidence of Japanese government. Japan always payed interest. Japan has to pay same as small Balkan States. and I hear London market take up Chinese bond in spite of no pay of interest. I will tell Government to spread payment." Prime minister replied, "I take your note." The next day, the price of Japanese bond rised 6 points upto 95 pound.
Yoshida p.275
Hori, a staff of IJA General Staff found a relation that stock prices of can companies and pharmacy companies got high before US operations in the Pacific Ocean. Hata wrote it on a comment of Hori's book.
Hori, p347
Hori Eizou
When sucide attacks against warships of Okinawa ended in June 1945 and Japan lost the Okinawa Battle, strangely price of stock market of Japan began rising up, though IJA and IJN had prepared for the final battle of Japan. Nakajima, a staff of GF thought secret operation to stop the Pacific War was going.
Nakajima p.236
IJN had made submarines and a lot of sucide weapons that were torpedos, boats and gliders with a rocket. An IJN had trained a lot of young sucide crews.
manned torpedos
midget submarines
suicide boat

While a few IJN leaders actioned to stop the Pacific War. IJN Minister Yonai ordered deputy minister Inoue to stop the war in August 1944. Inoue also ordered rear admiral Takaki. Conflict of seeking political power to take Mikado's favor continued almost a year. Mikado always plays remarkable role in the conflict of Japanese history and stands in balance of conflicting groups. In the conflict of political poweres, cease fire information stimulated stock market of Japan, I think.
Stock ticker number
Takefuji 8564
Qiagen
Borse Frankfurt
Morimoto, p81
Ebina, p112
Tsushou Koukai Jyouyaku Haiki Tukoku
(1) Kawada, p152-153
(2) Morimoto p.67

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Year	1930	1936	1940
China	129,768	90,593	46,136
Japan	61,450	46,694	37,671
China/Japan	2.1	1.9	1.2